CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-11-29T13:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-11-29T13:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16156/-1
CME Note: An eruption from the active region beyond the southeastern limb of the Earth-facing disk resulted in a M4.4 flare that peaked at 2020-11-29T13:11Z. This eruption resulted in a CME in the SE of STEREO-A COR2A (partial halo) and in the east of SOHO C2 starting around 2020-11-29T13:24Z; the CME front can later be seen in SOHO C3 at 2020-11-29T13:30Z. (NOTE: The time of this CME has been updated to 2020-11-29T13:24Z as that is the first available image the CME is seen in STEREO-A COR2; the originally input time was 2020-11-29T13:00Z.) Lan Jian - I think there may be a shock near 21UT on Dec 1. DSCOVR data show sharp increases of Np, V, and Tp at the time. After the shock, there seems to be some smooth magnetic field rotations during about 02-20 UT on Dec 2. However, the peak total field strength is only about 7 nT, quite weak. The Bz south reaches only about 3 nT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-01T21:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-03T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:
Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels today with a long duration M4 flare observed at 29/1311 UTC. This flare originated from a region just beyond the SE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II (765 km/s) radio sweep, a 240 sfu Tenflare, and a CME off the east limb first observed at 29/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery (estimated velocity 1393 km/s). An EIT wave could be seen in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 29/1355 UTC and a faint, asymmetric halo shock could be seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 29/1418 UTC. Modelling of the CME indicated a miss, however the model didn't encapsulate the full extent of the shock and the possibility remains for a potential shock enhancement/glancing blow on 01-02 Dec. No significant changes were noted in the spotted regions on the visible disk. No additional CMEs were observed during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 30 Nov-02 Dec. Energetic Particles .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak flux of 1,660 pfu observed at 29/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, although a small bump was observed at the 10 MeV energy level after 30/0800 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) due to the potential for further significant flare activity from an unnumbered region rotating around the SE limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about 30/0700 UTC when parameters became enhanced. Solar wind speeds increased from about 425 km/s to about 525 km/s, total field briefly increased to 12 nT and the Bz component was mostly southward to -10 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 30 Dec. A shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME is possible on 01-02 Dec causing an initial enhancement to solar wind speed, however the main body of the ejecta was not Earth-directed. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Dec. Unsettled to active periods are possible on 01-02 Dec with the possible arrival of the aforementioned shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME. Arrival prediction taken from: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-predictionLead Time: 32.50 hour(s)
Difference: -27.00 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2020-11-30T12:30Z
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